CBAM Certificate Pricing: What to Expect in 2026

Understanding CBAM certificate pricing is crucial for financial planning. Certificates will be priced based on EU ETS weekly average auction prices, meaning your costs will fluctuate with the European carbon market.

How CBAM Certificates Work

Unlike EU ETS allowances, CBAM certificates are purchased—not traded—directly from national authorities. Key differences:

• No trading - You cannot sell certificates to other importers
• Weekly pricing - Price updates every week based on ETS auctions
• Surrender deadline - Must be surrendered by May 31 each year for prior year imports
• Re-purchase available - Authorities will buy back up to 1/3 of certificates purchased that year

Price Forecasting Methods

Use these approaches to budget for CBAM costs:

Method 1: Current ETS + Buffer

Take current ETS prices and add a 20-30% buffer for price increases. Simple but may underestimate in volatile markets.

Method 2: Analyst Consensus

Follow EU carbon market analysts. Current consensus for 2026-2027:

Method 3: Scenario Planning

Build three scenarios (low, medium, high) and plan for each:

• Low scenario: Economic slowdown reduces industrial demand
• Medium scenario: Steady growth following current trajectory
• High scenario: Accelerated climate policy or supply constraints

Free Allocation Adjustments

If your supplier's installation benefits from free ETS allocations, you can deduct this from your CBAM obligation. This will phase down:

Budgeting Best Practices

1. Start with actual supplier data - Accurate emissions data means accurate cost forecasts
2. Monitor ETS weekly - Set up price alerts for significant movements
3. Review quarterly - Update forecasts as market conditions change
4. Consider currency exposure - CBAM certificates priced in EUR
5. Build in contingency - 15-20% buffer for price spikes